Tough Options for VP
FEW months into the General Election apprehension reigns supreme out of the grim reality that national politics, and indeed in the local scene, portend for Lower Eastern.
The fear is driven by the fact that there are no positive indications as at now that the next elections will have either Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka or her erstwhile rival Water and Irrigation Minister Charity Ngilu elected as the Fourth President of Kenya.
Opinion polls released recently show Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi having varied chances of being elected President in given circumstances, What is worrying though is that the expectation that Mr Musyoka would be neck to neck with either of them or even better given his status as Vice President has been shattered. It has been further complicated by the entry of Mrs Ngilu into the fray and the VP can no longer swim freely in Ukambani the way he wishes because there is stiff competition at home, just as there is out there.
The politics of the nation now seem to be favouring politicians seen as independent, clean, development conscious, indefatigable and fiercely forthright.
The only hope left for Mr Musyoka is the formation of a coalition partnership with like minded politicians in the G7 framework. Being the weaker partner, it is his duty to strive to make is work so that he is not edged out by other players, including Mrs Ngilu
An analysis by the Anchor shows that there are factors that will inform who joins who in the coalitions. Key to this is the ability of the candidate to mobilise numbers and resources and form a formidable negotiation basis.
The second factor is a candidate’s ability to attract confidence of others and be trustworthy to keep agreements alive no matter the circumstances.
Those in possession of these two factors will obviously emerge at the top of coalition agreements as possible presidential candidates. Those without these have the unfortunate position of not being approached at all or ceding their positions to be running mates of appendages to coalition set-ups.
As we went to press, only the G7 side seemed to be talking to find a basis of forming a network that can defeat Mr Odinga. One leader involved in the negotiations who spoke to our sources says Mr Musyoka has been reluctantly speaking to the representatives of Mr Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto.
He was reluctantly pulled into the famous meeting where the three recently met at Norfork Hotel in Nairobi. One of the reasons why the Uhuru- Ruto pair has been doubtful in dealing with the VP is his expectation that any deal they do must have him as first among equals, and thus most eligible to be presidential candidate among them.
The expectation may be owing to the fact that he is the most senior among them in government and that after all, he is the Number Two politician in thee land. It may be further buttressed by the fact that he is longest serving MP in the House after Kibaki, not to mention that he has served longer than both Uhuru, Ruto or even Raila himself, the fact that he is the Prime Minster and Kibaki’s Co-principal notwithstanding. True, Kalonzo does not have debacle of the Hague around his neck as is the case with his two G7 competitors and better still, he fought for them to be tried locally.
Our sources say that that is as far as it goes. They deride him that he neither has the numbers, the resources nor the drive to be President, a factor seemingly buttressed by Opinion Polls that place him noe at five percent. “ True, he may be a General. But where is his army? Will he expect that we provide him with troops, their food, clothing and equipment necessary for the fight?”, a source familiar with the talks quoted one of the top G7 guns as asking.
The source indicated that both Uhuru and Ruto are not sure on the effects of the Hague Trial on their bid and that rather than wait for fate, they would rather muddy the waters sufficiently and ensure that the person who becomes President would be friendly enough not to easily hand them over to the Hague.
They are not entirely sure that Kalonzo would be that person. That is why they, and Uhuru in particular, seem to be casting their net far and wide.
Reliable sources say that the desperation is so great that the G7 brigade is ready to work with Mr Musyoka only if he accepts to take the position of King Maker, accept the position of Deputy President and declare support for Uhuru. But, they fear, that Mr Musyoka’s philosophy of passing between men(Kupitia katikati yao)cannot support the courage King makers need to make a difference.
Some of Kalonzo’s aides have been pushing him to move in that direction and be king maker. They believe that this strategy would have Kalonzo benefiting in the event that Mr Kenyatta won the presidency and is subsequently jailed. “ He has to behave like a hunter, lay his trap and wait without breathing”, said the source.
The current constitution allows a Deputy President to serve the remaining tern if the president is removed from office by either death of other circumstances. The reality of the Hague cases to Uhuru and Ruto have that attraction to their likely running mates.
But what are the chances of Kalonzo being a King Maker?. Politicians close to the Wiper party say that if Uhuru does not endorse the VP, the VP would defiantly endorse Raila. This reality is sending shivers down the spines of Uhuru and his camp, which shows that there is a likelihood that the VP can make a decision that can be a game changer in the race to succeed President Mwai Kibaki.
But those who know the VP say he has no nerve to bite the bullet until he sees that he is clearly out of the game. Only then will he make a move. But the temptation to back Uhuru has its own pitfalls. It may confirm remarks Uhuru once made that some politicians were following others in the hope that they go to the Hague and thus get a golden opportunity.
This is one of the guiding fears of the VP and any decision in that direction would have to be well thought out.
So why has the VP found himself in such a position where he can not move on his own, yet he is unattractive to other players? Analysts see his predicament in the decision he made immediately after the last election. “ His mistake is that he ate too early before the children found something to eat. Now the children know they can go hungry and the father will not ask. Neigbours will not trust such a father” said a University Lecturer Dr Makumbi Muthoka, an expression meaning that the VP made a mistake by getting into Government without a negotiated deal for his ODM-K party and its members.
